Calum Findlay, ADM Agriculture’s head of fertiliser, comments on the markets
Europe’s gas crisis continues, amid news that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia is down for scheduled maintenance. Uncertainties remain over whether the work will be completed in the 10-day window and if gas supplies will recommence at pre-maintenance levels, if at all.
Forward gas prices increased for Winter 22 significantly last week, surrounding speculation about future gas flows from Russia. UK ammonium nitrate terms issued Monday morning saw a 13% rise on the back of this.
Granular urea in the UK remains at an excellent value on a £/kg N basis. Slight increases have been seen in the 46N product following ammonium nitrate price increases. Significant upside risk remains for 46N though.
India tendered for 500,000t of urea this week, in line with expectations. Results from the tender could highlight limited global urea availability and consolidate current price levels.
Potash and phosphate product demand has been significantly subdued in the UK given high prices. It remains unlikely we will see corrections before the autumn PK application, but forward prices beyond that point remain uncertain.
