Following a smaller cereal harvest in 2024, there was an increased reliance on imported grain, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).
Wheat production was down by 20%, compared to the previous year. Due to this, imports are expected to rise by 13% to 2.75 million tonnes.
While UK production is set to recover slightly, it is not expected to rebound back to average levels. The projected wheat area of average yield is set to reach 12.5 million tonnes, well below the five-year average of 13.9 million.
Oilseed rape production continues to struggle, with last year’s production falling by 32% to 824,000t. The area is set to increase further this year, with production predicted to be between 643,000t and 912,000t.
As such, imports are expected to increase to 875,000t. At the same time, the limited global and domestic supply has inflated prices, with the spot domestic delivered price increasing by 23% year-on-year.
Olivia Bonser, AHDB senior market analyst (Cereals & Oilseeds) said: “2024 was a challenging year for UK cereal and oilseed producers, with a marked decline in both wheat and oilseed rape production. This smaller harvest is leading to an increased reliance on imports, which comes at a time of global market uncertainty.
“While there are signs of potential recovery in 2025, particularly for wheat, the decline in domestic production in 2024, coupled with competitive import prices, is creating a challenging environment for farmers.
“While global prices may rise in the short term due to tight supply, the longer-term outlook remains unpredictable, with global weather patterns, trade dynamics, and competition from major exporters like Brazil and the EU all influencing market conditions.
“It’s crucial that UK farmers keep an eye on markets, as the coming months are key for the development of the 2025 Northern Hemisphere crops, and we could see some fluctuations in prices.”