The Central Association of Agricultural Valuers (CAAV) expects the UK to soon start seeing real impacts from the conflict in the Middle East and is calling on government to act now to ensure continued access to food.
“Reviews of the oil market by sector experts point to a tipping point in supplies in early June, with critically low global levels by the end of May and stocks exhausted by the end of June,” says Jeremy Moody, secretary and adviser to the CAAV.
“So far, the major impacts have been on South-East Asian manufacturing, but the seismic waves are coming towards us. We all need to be thinking now how to make the best of remaining supplies as fuel and other goods come to be limited by price, shortages or controls.”
Harvesting, processing and delivery of cereal crops and vegetables is reliant on access to fuel and the UK’s food supply chains are vulnerable – as seen during Covid-19. Restriction of supplies will likely push food prices higher and risk halting access altogether.
Jeremy says there is a chance that wheat and barley production could be severely curtailed this autumn as farmers opt not to plant some of their land after several loss-making years and the prospect of more thanks to rising fuel costs. Red diesel prices remain high, and nitrogen fertilisers have risen 53% compared to last year.
“Across a 500-acre farm that equates to losses of £28,000 and £69,500, respectively,” he says. “The cumulative losses point to a significant strain on cash flow and credit, limiting farmers’ ability to plant even where they are minded to do so.”
He concludes by saying that the impact of the conflict in the Middle East may constitute ‘exceptional circumstances’ warranting official intervention under s.20 of the Agriculture Act 2020.